Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc

The Trump administration is discussing plans to shield the U.S. Farm Belt from an expected expansion of biofuel waivers, a move under consideration to cut gasoline prices for motorists, Reuters reported. The plan would increase biofuel quotas for 2027 by about 500 million gallons to offset damage from exemptions for smaller refineries, which are expected to roughly double from 990 million renewable fuel credits to as many as 1.8 billion. During Trump's first term, broad refinery exemptions drew fierce opposition from Midwest farmers and ethanol producers, and the issue has resurfaced as the administration seeks to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject any waiver expansion, warning of severe and immediate consequences that could collapse biofuel markets and reduce demand for corn and soybean oil. Trump is expected to meet with refiners and fuel retailers in the coming week to highlight efforts to lower gasoline prices.

U.S. ethanol blending credit prices plunged Monday to their lowest levels in more than four months after the Environmental Protection Agency extended a September 1 compliance deadline for refiners and ruled on long-pending small refinery exemption requests by the end of August. Conventional ethanol RINs traded as low as $1.75, down $0.34 from Friday and their lowest level since April 15, according to data from Argus Media, after the credits had traded as high as $2.50 on July 7. RIN prices lost substantial value again during Monday's session in response to the EPA's impending small refinery exemption decisions, after falling 5% on Friday. Market participants expect the EPA's rulings to free up a significant number of credits, with refining and ethanol industry analysts estimating that the exemptions could free up 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion RINs that small refiners could use to meet their 2025 compliance obligations, after the EPA had previously indicated it could reallocate 990 million RINs associated with exemptions. Extending the compliance deadline is seen as signaling some form of RIN relief for refiners' 2026 and 2027 obligations as well, University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin told Reuters.

Shares of Green Plains fell 3% in afternoon trading after data showed domestic ethanol production rose to a multi-month high, increasing both week-over-week and year-over-year. The surge in supply outweighed moderate demand, causing the North American Ethanol Price Index to decline in the first quarter of 2026. The stock later pared losses to $15.77, down 0.5% from the previous close.