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Critical Materials & Supply Chain▼

Kazatomprom Fair Value Estimate Cut to US$85.20 Amid Analyst Split

The fair value estimate for National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC has been reduced from US$92.32 to US$85.20, reflecting a more conservative price target framework. UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a US$90 price target, citing direct uranium exposure and pricing-driven earnings momentum, while JPMorgan downgraded the stock on risk-reward concerns. Kazatomprom's AGM approved a dividend of KZT 1,292.27 per ordinary share, allocating KZT 335.2 billion or 75% of free cash flow from 2025 results, with payments starting 28 July 2026. The company confirmed 2026 guidance of 19,500 to 20,500 tonnes of uranium in group sales and consolidated revenue of KZT 2,200 billion to KZT 2,300 billion, and reported first quarter 2026 U3O8 production of 6,144 tonnes on a 100% basis and 3,247 tonnes on an attributable basis.

59OT.LSE ▼UBSG.SW

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Critical Materials & Supply Chain▲

Kazatomprom Fair Value Estimate Raised to US$92.32 Amid Split Analyst Views

The fair value estimate for National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC has been raised from US$85.53 to US$92.32, reflecting updated analyst assumptions on revenue growth and valuation multiples. Revenue growth assumption was revised from 20.54% to 22.04% in KZT terms, while the net profit margin assumption moved slightly lower from 32.85% to 32.50%, and the future P/E multiple was updated from 13.20x to 14.47x, with the discount rate unchanged at 8.41%. The revision comes as Wall Street analysts offer split views: UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a US$90 price target, citing direct exposure to the uranium upcycle and attractive valuation, while JPMorgan recently downgraded the stock, signaling caution without detailing specific concerns.

59OT.LSE ▲URANIUM ▲

Critical Materials & Supply Chain

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