The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, trading under the ticker XOP, is up 43% year to date as Middle East supply disruptions shut in roughly 10.5 million barrels per day of Gulf production in April. The fund trades near $179, and its performance hinges on how quickly tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-conflict volumes. The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent falling to $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $79 in 2027 as Middle East barrels come back online, with production shut-ins tapering from 10.75 million barrels per day in May to 1.7 million by the fourth quarter. XOP's largest holding is Venture Global at 3.11% of assets, an LNG exporter whose economics are tied to the Henry Hub-to-JKM spread, and a rebound in Qatari LNG exports above 450,000 barrels per day of shut-in recovery would compress Venture Global's netbacks and remove a key driver for the fund.
