Pi Securities maintains Buy on CK with 23.1 baht target after cabinet approves three double-track rail routes worth 106 billion baht

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Pi Securities assesses that CK is starting to see signs of new bidding activity, after the early part of this year saw only 870 million baht in new contracts signed, causing its backlog to fall from over 168 billion baht at the start of 2026 to 146 billion baht at the end of the first half of 2026. Most recently, on September 1, the cabinet approved proceeding with three double-track railway projects with a combined value of over 106 billion baht, comprising the Chumphon-Surat Thani route at 36.892 billion baht, the Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction route at 61.534 billion baht, and the Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar route at 8.371 billion baht. Bidding is expected to be held in early 2027. These three double-track rail routes are part of Phase 2 of the double-track railway programme, which comprises six projects in total, so moving forward on three of them is a good signal that other projects will follow. The research team views that with the contracts expected to be split into five packages across the three projects, CK will have a chance to win some of the bids, which would help support 2027 revenue above the research team's forecast of 42.134 billion baht, since new work had not previously been included. As for the earnings outlook for the third quarter of 2026, it is expected to remain at a high level, continuing from the second quarter of 2026, driven by the high season for CKP. In addition, there are two other large projects that CK has a high chance of winning because they are projects involving its subsidiary BEM: the electrical and signalling system works for the southern section of the Purple Line, valued at approximately 30 billion baht, and the Double Deck expressway works, valued at 35 billion baht. The research team therefore maintains its Buy recommendation with a fair value estimate of 23.1 baht.

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Cabinet approved three double-track rail projects worth 106 billion baht, giving CK a chance to win bids and lift 2027 revenue above forecast.

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