Krungsri Securities assesses that the government is likely to extend the measure increasing the credit limit on the state welfare card for another two months, in October through November. Lavaron Sangsnit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, disclosed that after the government is likely to approve the Thai Chai Thai Plus measure, which is expected to be submitted for Cabinet approval on September 22, low-income earners under the state welfare card program must also be assisted, by topping up funds for purchasing consumer goods through Thong Fah shops, maintaining the increased limit at 1,000 baht per person per month, up from the normal level of 300 baht per person per month, continuing the original measure that raised the limit to this level from June through September. This is seen as positive for TNP, which is a shop that directly participates in the program, as well as for KK MOTHER, with revenue from the program accounting for 8-10% of total revenue, and it makes the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 more positive. Initially, SSSG for the fourth quarter of 2026 is estimated at around -2% year-on-year, and 2026 profit is estimated at 204 million baht, down 4% year-on-year. There is still upside risk of around 10% from better-than-expected SSSG, with 2026 SSSG estimated at +3% year-on-year against the assumption set at -3% year-on-year, where every 1% increase in SSSG affects 2026 profit by around 1.5%. In the short term, third-quarter 2026 profit is expected to grow the strongest at 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 55 million baht, from an expected SSSG of +13% year-on-year after benefiting from the measure for a full quarter, including the opening of eight new branches during the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026, leading revenue to be expected to rise 23% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter. Although gross margin is expected to weaken from product mix, with essential goods carrying low margin, the stock is attractive on valuation, trading at a 2026 forecast PER of 11.2 times, below the sector average of 14 times, and it has a strong financial position as net cash. Recommend Buy with a 2027 target price of 3.88 baht, based on a PER of 14 times, close to the sector average.
Thanapiriya Public Company LimitedGovernment welfare-card top-up extension boosts consumer spending at TNP's Thong Fah shops, lifting Q3 profit ~15% and SSSG.
