Goldman Sachs Forecasts October Fed Rate Hike After Hawkish FOMC

MacroDigital Finance
โดย TheStreet·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its October 27-28 meeting, an abrupt pivot from just days ago. Chief Economist David Mericle said in a note obtained by TheStreet that the revised forecast follows the Fed's unanimous 12-0 decision on Sept. 16, which lifted the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. The quarterly dot plot released the same day showed a median year-end funds rate of 3.6%, consistent with one additional 25-basis-point hike from the current midpoint, with sixteen of 18 participating policymakers anticipating at least one more increase this year. Goldman called the meeting more hawkish than expected, citing the 16-2 majority projecting at least one more hike, a median neutral rate dot that rose from 3.06% to 3.25%, and Chairman Kevin Warsh describing the move three times as having removed a dose of accommodation. Goldman kept its terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25-3.5%, while the CME Group FedWatch Tool puts the odds of another quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 at 53.1% and at least one additional hike by Dec. 9 at 87.5%.

Impact on stocks 4

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Goldman Sachs revised its Fed forecast to expect an October 25bp hike after the hawkish FOMC, a macro-rate call rather than a clear company-specific positive or negative.

Carbon Removal (DAC)▲ · 1 stocks
CME Group Inc
CME
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

CME Group's FedWatch Tool is cited for rate-hike odds, highlighting demand for its interest-rate derivatives/benchmark products amid Fed uncertainty.

Others▲ · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Goldman expects the Fed to raise rates another quarter point in October, pushing the effective federal funds rate higher.

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