Lennar reported a softer third quarter, with profit and revenue missing expectations as high mortgage rates and weaker confidence pressured housing demand and triggered another cut to full-year delivery guidance. The earnings disappointment and guidance cut have hit sentiment hard, with the share price down about 12% over the past month and roughly 27% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return has fallen about 39%. The most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $83.69 a share, compared with the last close of $76.43, implying a modest discount that investors must weigh against the current housing backdrop. Lennar trades on a P/E of 14.3x, higher than its Consumer Durables peers at 13x and below the US market at 18.2x, yet well below its fair ratio of 23.5x. The company's transition to an asset-light, land-light model with just-in-time delivery is expected to generate more predictable volume and growth, though its exposure to rate-sensitive entry-level buyers and the need for heavier incentives if mortgage costs stay elevated could quickly weaken the 9% undervalued case.
Lennar CorporationLennar missed Q3 profit and revenue estimates and cut its full-year delivery guidance, a negative earnings/guidance event.
