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CGSI maintains Hold on KCE with 70 baht target, raises EPS by 18-35%
CGSI has revised up its earnings per share forecasts for KCE Electronics Public Company Limited, or KCE, by 18-35% for 2026-2028, and raised its target price to 70 baht from the previous level, while maintaining its Hold recommendation, as it views the current share price as having already priced in much of the recovery in the printed circuit board business. The revision reflects higher assumptions for sales volume, average selling prices, and improved operating leverage. CGSI raised its PCB sales forecasts for 2027-2028 by 12-20% on rising demand for server boards and the recognition of capacity from new plants. For third-quarter 2026 results, CGSI expects KCE to post normalized profit of 495 million baht, up 70% year on year and 105% quarter on quarter, on sales growth of 25% year on year and a gross profit margin expected to rise to 22.5% from 18.9% in the second quarter of 2026. On new capacity, management said at an analyst meeting in August 2026 that KCE plans to add about 1 million square feet per month of PCB capacity, or a 28% increase from the current capacity of 3.6 million square feet per month, with the new plant expected to start production in mid-2028. CGSI expects capital expenditure of about 6-8 billion baht, compared with cash on hand of 1.7 billion baht at the end of June 2026 and projected 2026 EBITDA of 2.05 billion baht, which could force the company to borrow more and cut its dividend payout ratio during the investment period.
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Bualuang keeps TRADING BUY on KCE with 70 baht target, sees further price hikes through 2027
Bualuang Securities says a new angle for KCE shares is the possibility that the selling price increase cycle could extend into 2027, even though the market has already priced in the July increase and another in the fourth quarter of 2026. The key driver is not direct demand for AI circuit boards, but the cost of standard E-glass, the upstream raw material for CCL, which continues to rise after producers gradually shifted capacity to higher-grade materials for AI that offer better returns. Morgan Stanley's price index for standard E-glass fiber rose from 1.0 times in September 2025 to 3.7 times in August 2026 and 4.1 times in September 2026, while KCE's fiberglass purchase price rose from 0.49 US dollars per meter in the second quarter of 2025 to 0.74 US dollars per meter in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 51% year on year, which is still much smaller than the rise in upstream raw material prices, leaving a risk that cost pressure will feed through further. The research team has not yet included a third price increase in 2027 in its base-case estimates, because the general-grade CCL market is not yet entirely in shortage. It keeps its assumptions for the July and fourth-quarter 2026 price increases, maintains its TRADING BUY rating with a 70 baht target price, and views any additional price increase in 2027 as upside rather than part of the base case. Core profit is expected at 1.44 billion baht in 2026, up 78% year on year, 2.07 billion baht in 2027, up 43.9%, and 2.30 billion baht in 2028, up 11.1%.
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Finance Ministry sets KPIs to measure BOI, SEC and SET, pushing New Economy businesses onto the Thai stock market
The Ministry of Finance has designated the drive to bring companies in future industries, or the New Economy, onto the Stock Exchange of Thailand as one of the key performance indicators, or KPIs, for three agencies: the Board of Investment, or BOI; the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC; and the Stock Exchange of Thailand, through the BOI to IPO project, in order to assess proactive performance beyond their normal mandates. The measure aims to draw foreign capital and operators across the supply chain from upstream to downstream, including advanced electronic components such as PCB and optical transceivers, modern vehicles, smart agriculture, global pet food, and the wellness sector, to raise funds on the Thai stock market. The BOI board meeting on September 11, 2026 approved additional incentive measures, or on-top incentives, for companies that receive investment promotion and list on the stock exchange. New Economy businesses receive an additional three years of corporate income tax exemption beyond the normal criteria, or the option of an additional 50% corporate income tax reduction for five years. General businesses receive an additional two years of corporate income tax exemption, or the option of an additional 50% corporate income tax reduction for three years. From 2023 to June 2026, there were investment promotion applications totaling more than 5 trillion baht in target industries such as semiconductors, PCB, the AI supply chain, digital, clean energy, robotics, and aircraft parts. In the first half of this year, actual investment of more than 500 billion baht already flowed into the economy, and in 2026 alone, four leading Japanese automakers, Isuzu, Mazda, Mitsubishi Motors and Honda, announced additional investments in Thailand worth a combined total of more than 50 billion baht. Asadej Kongsiri, director and manager of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said the project will create four areas of mutual benefit, or four big wins, covering the business sector, investors, the capital market and the overall economy. The SEC has approved new revised criteria to let target companies enter the fundraising process faster by shortening the track record requirement. Meanwhile, the CMDF fund provides support in the form of a matching fund, subsidizing expenses and fees for IPOs at 7 million baht per company. At the same time, the three agencies agreed to set up a joint task force, with the support framework of the project between the stock exchange and the CMDF set at a total of five years, ending in 2031.