A $300 billion fiscal package arriving in September threatens to break the Federal Reserve's 200-day rate pause, according to Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners. Core PCE sits in the 90.9th percentile of its 12-month range, while traders are split between a July hike and three cuts this year. Goldman Sachs expects 50 basis points of cuts, but inflation hawks point to the fiscal impulse and sticky inflation. The VIX is in the 22nd percentile, making options protection historically cheap ahead of a tariff deadline, a Fed decision, and the fiscal fight.