AAON Raised 2026 Guidance on Data Center Cooling Strength but Shares Fell 10.2%

Citi says growing political opposition to artificial intelligence infrastructure ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections has not materially weakened the data center construction pipeline. Data center development has become a bipartisan flashpoint, with local governments introducing moratoriums and at least 15 state legislatures proposing tighter regulatory restrictions, yet spending remains strong as AI infrastructure demand continues to support development. The impact has been concentrated among speculative and early-stage projects, which are increasingly delayed or cancelled during local approval processes, while late-stage developments that have already secured sites and grid connections continue to move ahead. Hyperscalers are seeking workarounds to power constraints and local restrictions, with Amazon pursuing direct investment in nuclear development with Dominion Energy and Meta securing a major nuclear power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy. Citi does not expect another market shock comparable to the emergence of DeepSeek, arguing investors have already adjusted to the prospect of highly efficient Chinese models, though it flags a potentially greater risk from governments restricting models deemed too dangerous, which could abruptly create excess computing capacity.

Nvidia, Google and Emerald AI have launched the AI Energy Management Alliance, or AEMA, a coalition that dynamically manages the electricity use of data centers in response to grid conditions. Emerald AI founder and CEO Varun Sivaram said the alliance's founding members are joined by a cohort of 20 launch partners, including the AI lab Anthropic, the semiconductor firm Analog Devices, and the energy companies AES, NRG, Constellation, RWE and National Grid. Sivaram said Emerald AI, which was founded under two years ago, is building with Nvidia and Digital Realty the world's first from-the-ground-up power-flexible AI data center, a 100 megawatt facility in Manassas, Virginia, that comes online later this year. He said Google, one of the founding members, has already done a gigawatt of demand response for its data centers, while Emerald and Nvidia have completed six demonstrations around the world, in London, Phoenix and Virginia. Sivaram said the alliance is talking to the FERC commissioners, state regulators and the administration about a grand bargain in which flexible AI data centers act as good citizens to grids and communities in return for faster and larger connections to the power grid.