Kasikorn Bank estimates the baht will move within a range of 33.00-33.60 baht per dollar next week, from September 21 to 25, 2026, compared with the closing level of 33.33 baht per dollar on Friday, September 18. Key factors to watch include Thailand's August export figures, the conflict situation in the Middle East, statements from US Federal Reserve officials, and the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24. Last week, the baht weakened to its weakest level in a month and a half at 33.43 baht per dollar after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee voted to raise its policy rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4.00%, as the market had expected. Meanwhile, the new Dot Plot reflected the possibility of one more rate hike before the end of this year. For next week, the market is also watching key US economic data, including new home sales, August durable goods orders, the consumer confidence index, inflation expectation figures, the preliminary September purchasing managers' index, and weekly jobless claims, as well as China's announcement of its loan prime rate and the preliminary September purchasing managers' index for Japan, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom.
Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% and the Dot Plot signals one more hike this year, lifting the effective funds rate.
Fed rate hike and a Dot Plot pointing to another hike push Treasury yields up, so the 10Y yield rises (bond price falls).
