ADVANC benefits from iPhone 18, boosting sales and ARPU; court dismisses 1.2 billion baht case

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ADVANC shares gained support from demand for the iPhone 18 that exceeded the supply available in the market, lifting handset sales and average revenue per user, or ARPU. Patipark Nawawat, senior director of fundamental equity analysis at Krungsri Securities, said iPhone 18 sales create a structural benefit on two revenue fronts: higher device sales in both volume and average selling price, and the gradual bundling of new service packages with handset sales, which naturally lifts ARPU. He also assessed that any product shortage would not significantly affect revenue, because it stems from demand exceeding inventory rather than a reduction in allocated stock, meaning delayed deliveries merely shift revenue recognition between months. On fundamentals, net profit is expected to grow 15% in 2026, while the Supreme Administrative Court's dismissal of the case brought by Digital Phone Company, or DPC, a subsidiary of ADVANC, against National Telecom, or NT, over 1.2 billion baht in equipment and telecommunications network fees, helps remove concerns and unlock legal risk. The broker recommends a buy with a target price of 430 baht per share and expects a dividend yield of about 5%. Kasikorn Securities gives a base price of 385.34 baht, while Asia Plus Securities gives the ICT sector an overweight rating and notes that two related cases remain, case numbers 918/2558 and 741/2559, with a combined value of 1.98 billion baht, now under consideration by the Supreme Administrative Court. If both cases are lost, the impact on EPS would be only 0.67 baht per share, and the dividend yield for 2026 to 2027 is expected at 5.0% to 5.1%, with a 2027 target price of 428 baht.

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