Amgen IncNovartis's pelacarsen Phase 3 miss challenges the Lp(a)-lowering premise underlying Amgen's late-stage olpasiran, weakening its bull case.
Amgen Inc. shed roughly $12 billion in market value after hours on September 4, 2026, with the stock declining about 5% to $415, after Novartis announced that its Lp(a)-lowering therapy pelacarsen missed the Phase 3 cardiovascular-outcomes trial Lp(a)HORIZON. Novartis said pelacarsen substantially lowered Lp(a) but still failed to reduce the composite of cardiovascular death, heart attack, stroke, and urgent revascularization, directly challenging the hypothesis that lowering Lp(a), a genetic cardiovascular risk factor, cuts events. The read-through hit Amgen because its late-stage asset olpasiran, an siRNA that lowered Lp(a) by more than 95% at certain doses in Phase 2 versus roughly 80% for pelacarsen in earlier studies, rests on the same biological premise. The bull case that this deeper reduction could deliver better cardiovascular outcomes remains unproven, since the Lp(a)HORIZON topline provided no evidence of a clinical threshold above an 80% reduction, and Eli Lilly's lepodisiran is running the same deep-reduction experiment. Amgen is not an Lp(a) pure-play, with MariTide in obesity, Repatha in cholesterol, and Tezspire in asthma driving more value, while Insider Monkey data shows 66 hedge funds held AMGN in the second quarter of 2026, up slightly from 65 in the first, and short interest sits at just 2.4% of float.
Amgen IncNovartis's pelacarsen Phase 3 miss challenges the Lp(a)-lowering premise underlying Amgen's late-stage olpasiran, weakening its bull case.
Novartis AGNovartis's pelacarsen substantially lowered Lp(a) but failed to reduce cardiovascular events in the Phase 3 Lp(a)HORIZON trial.
Eli Lilly and CompanyEli Lilly's lepodisiran is noted as running the same deep-Lp(a)-reduction experiment, so the pelacarsen failure is a read-through risk but no Lilly-specific result is reported.
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