Arabica coffee prices fell sharply as drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions are expected to accelerate the harvest. September arabica coffee dropped 10.10 cents, or 3.04%, while September ICE robusta coffee edged up 10 dollars, or 0.26%. Somar Meteorologia reported no rain in the week ended August 2 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region. The slow harvest pace has been supportive, with Cooxupe co-op members 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind last year’s 67%, and Safras & Mercado pegging Brazil’s overall 2026/27 harvest at 64% complete as of July 15, trailing the five-year average of 70%. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 264,179 bags last Friday, providing some support, while robusta inventories rose to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22 before easing to 4,213 lots. The USDA’s biannual forecast on July 22 projected record global coffee output of 189.7 million bags in 2026-27, up 6.0%, with arabica production rising 12% and robusta dipping 0.7%, and Brazil’s crop seen at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14%. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices, as coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop, and the US Climate Prediction Center warned on July 8 that the emerging El Niño could be one of the strongest in over 75 years. Soaring Vietnamese robusta exports weighed on robusta, with January-to-July 2026 shipments up 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons and 2025/26 production projected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.