Asia Plus Securities Lays Out 3 Scenarios for the Fed, Which Will Decide Global Stocks Tonight; DOT PLOT in Focus

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โดย อีไฟแนนซ์ไทย·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities has released an analysis outlining three scenarios for the direction of US Federal Reserve interest rates ahead of tonight's meeting outcome and DOT PLOT at 1am, amid renewed pressure from inflation as a key issue after global oil prices rose more than 2% on concerns over the shutdown of a Saudi pipeline, affecting roughly 4-5% of world supply. In the first case, if the Fed holds rates at 3.75%, going against market expectations for a 25 basis point hike, with the DOT PLOT signalling only one rate increase this year as the market expects, that could spur a sharp rally in stock markets. In the second case, if the Fed raises rates to 4.00% with the DOT PLOT signalling only one rate increase this year as the market expects, that could prompt a rebound in stocks after they came under pressure from the start of September, with US stock markets down 2.6% to 3.1% month to date. In the third case, if the Fed raises rates to 4.00% as the market expects but the DOT PLOT signals more than one rate increase this year, higher than the market expects, that risks pressuring stocks into volatility. However, signals from the financial market point toward a rate hike, reflected in US bond yields across all maturities hitting their highest levels of the year, while the FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will raise rates twice this year and twice next year. Meanwhile, the stance of the Fed board has clearly turned more hawkish after Kevin Warsh took over as the new Fed chair in May 2026, and the FedSpeak index has moved up close to 9.0, or the most hawkish sentiment since mid-2023, when the policy rate stood at 5.0%.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 2 stocks
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Article centers on the Fed decision and DOT PLOT, with hawkish FedSpeak and market expectations pointing to rate hikes, lifting the policy rate.

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