Asia Plus warns Thai stocks face triple headwinds, highlights PTTEP, KTB, SJWD

MacroGeopoliticsCommodity Impact 4
โดย InfoQuest·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the Thai stock market today must brace for impact from all-round pressure factors, after a two-day closure. Global equity markets faced severe risk-off sentiment from three negative factors: the Fed's tight monetary policy, which signalled a more hawkish stance than the market expected, with three committee members voting to raise rates by another 0.25 percent to 4.0 percent, and the FedWatch Tool assigning a 57 percent probability that the Fed may hike rates at the next meeting, pushing the 30-year US Treasury yield to 5.21 percent, a 19-year high, and the 10-year yield to 4.68 percent, pressuring technology stocks; the widening Middle East situation from the US and Iran into a full-scale regional war, covering the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemeni groups, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled and Oman-mediated talks have halted, driving Brent crude oil prices past 90.74 US dollars per barrel, accelerating global inflation and production costs; and the heavy correction in technology and AI stocks, with the NASDAQ 100 index falling more than 10 percent in two days and semiconductor stocks dropping an average of 25 percent on concerns over investment returns and lower-than-expected second-quarter 2026 earnings, while the South Korean stock market plunged 16.2 percent and the Japanese market corrected more than 5.4 percent. However, the research team finds positive signals from capital movements, as foreign fund managers rotate out of North Asian technology stocks into TIP markets, which have lower technology weightings and are safer, giving the Thai stock market a chance to receive catch-up buying from its standout and safe valuations, including PE, PBV, and yield spreads, coupled with support from higher crude oil prices. The first support level for the SET Index today is assessed at 1,615 points, but caution is advised on volatility in domestic electronics stocks such as DELTA, which may decline in line with global tech stocks. The investment strategy focuses on defensive positioning, selecting stocks with individual positive factors: PTTEP, which directly benefits from surging crude oil prices due to the war situation, with expected standout second-quarter 2026 earnings and a high dividend payout ratio; KTB, which benefits from the direction of interest rates staying high, supporting net interest margin and having a strong asset position; and SJWD, which has a clear recovery trend in second-half earnings and high share price upside potential. For foreign investment portfolios, speculative trading is recommended through DR instruments: SBUX80, which reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of 93.2 billion dollars and EPS growth of 70 percent year-on-year to 0.85 dollars, driven by same-store sales growth for the fourth consecutive quarter; and BYDCOM80, supported by continued delivery growth in July after launching new car models in the market, while monitoring Microsoft's strong fourth-quarter earnings, especially cloud revenue accelerating 32 percent year-on-year to 39.3 billion dollars, which will send positive sentiment to global mega-cap stocks like the Magnificent Seven going forward.

Impact on stocks 7

Energy▲ · 1 stocks
Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Electrification & Mobility▲ · 1 stocks
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Consumer Discretionary▲ · 1 stocks
Industrials▲ · 1 stocks
Others▲ · 1 stocks

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