AstraZeneca Rises as J.P. Morgan Reiterates Overweight on 2027 Phase III Readouts

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โดย GuruFocus·GBUS·Read original
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AstraZeneca shares rose 2.16% intraday after J.P. Morgan reiterated an Overweight rating, citing six Phase III readouts due in 2027 that together carry more than $10 billion in risk-adjusted peak sales and should improve confidence in the company's ability to keep growing beyond 2030. For laroprovstat, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor reading out in the first quarter of 2027, the bank models peak risk-adjusted sales of $3.2 billion against consensus of $2.4 billion, noting the drug showed a smaller LDL-C reduction than Merck's Lipfendra in earlier testing but carries no fasting requirement, which J.P. Morgan sees as the more important difference. On the bank's numbers, zibotentan with Farxiga in kidney disease gets an 80% probability of success on comparable earlier results, while balcinerenone with Farxiga in heart failure gets 50% because its partial mineralocorticoid receptor antagonism could dilute the benefit rivals have shown. In oncology, Datroway in triple-negative breast cancer and puxi-sam in endometrial cancer both carry 80%, and saruparib in prostate cancer is judged strong enough in the 30% of trial patients with HRR mutations to de-risk $3 billion of peak sales.

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