August Inflation Rises 2.53%, Higher Than Expected, Due to Higher Oil and Food Prices
MacroCommodity
The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce reported that the general Consumer Price Index (CPI), or headline inflation, in August 2026 stood at 102.67, up 2.53% from the same period last year, higher than the market expectation of 2.37-2.43%. The main causes were domestic fuel prices remaining high compared to the previous year due to the prolonged Middle East conflict and additional economic sanctions, as well as a broad increase in prepared food prices. Fresh foods such as eggs, fresh chicken, fresh vegetables, and fresh fruits also became more expensive. As a result, the average headline inflation for the first eight months of this year (January-August) rose 1.37%. Meanwhile, the core CPI in August stood at 102.97, up 1.44%, and the average for the first eight months increased 0.94%. The TPSO director assessed that inflation in September is likely to continue rising due to persistently high global oil prices, and expects inflation in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be 2.70%. For the full year, the original forecast of 1.5-2.5% remains unchanged.
