Australian Bond Yields Surge to 15-Year High as Market Bets on 84% Chance of RBA Rate Hike

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Australian government bonds came under heavy selling pressure, pushing the yield on 3-year bonds up 18 basis points to 5.03%, the highest level since May 2011, or a more than 15-year high. The 10-year yield rose 13 basis points to 5.38%. The selloff tracked a sharp decline in US Treasuries after tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, and the US Treasury bought back fewer bonds than the market expected in the first operation of its expanded buyback program. Inflation pressures also led the market to increase bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates this month, with Overnight-Indexed Swaps reflecting an 84% chance of a hike, up sharply from 65% on Thursday. Michael Tang, a rates strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the market is heavily dominated by a hawkish monetary policy view, and that the factors that could halt the selloff are softer US CPI figures and clarity on Federal Reserve rate increases. Investors are now watching US inflation data due on Friday to assess whether the Fed will raise rates at next week's meeting.

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