Yuanta Securities issued an analysis of Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited, or TASCO, stating that the resumption of crude oil imports from Venezuela opens long-term upside, but the third-quarter outlook remains challenging. The firm said asphalt sales volumes will slow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, weighed down by weak domestic sales as the country enters the rainy season and as government budget disbursements slow toward the end of fiscal year 2026. Even so, remaining investment budgets awaiting disbursement are still as high as 239 billion baht, or 31% of the total investment budget. Overseas sales were flat to slightly weaker, as international asphalt prices rose above 700 US dollars per tonne, the highest in 10 years, prompting customers to delay orders. The company maintained its 2026 sales target of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, having already achieved 0.53 million tonnes in the first half, or roughly 44% to 48% of the full-year target. Its construction contracting business is expected to be steady compared with the second quarter, with management maintaining its target of recognizing about 2.5 billion baht in revenue in the second half of 2026, up 88% half-on-half and 117% year-on-year, and with a backlog of 6.2 billion baht at the end of the second quarter of 2026. As for Venezuelan crude imports, the company brought in its first lot of 600,000 to 700,000 barrels in late July 2026 and its second lot of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels in mid-August 2026. Both were lot-by-lot contracts arranged through intermediaries, not long-term contracts directly with PDVSA. The resumption of these imports will lift asphalt yield by about 10% to 15% compared with using crude from other sources. The research team maintained its 2026 profit forecast at 1.563 billion baht, up 57.3% year-on-year, and its 2027 forecast at 1.935 billion baht, up 23.8% year-on-year. It also maintained its end-2027 fair value of 19.40 baht and expects a 2026 dividend of 1.00 baht per share, a dividend yield of 5.9%, and therefore kept its buy recommendation.
Tipco Asphalt Public Company LimitedYuanta Securities recommends buying TASCO with a target price of 19.40 baht despite weak Q3 results.
