Bahnsen Says AI Bubble Pops When Good News Stops Moving Stocks

Industry
โดย CNBC·Read original
Summary · why it matters

David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, warned on CNBC that the AI bubble's key signal is when strong earnings no longer lift stock prices. He pointed to Palantir, which posted 84.71% revenue growth yet is down 36.47% year to date, and NVIDIA, which grew revenue 85.2% but has risen only 6.01% over nine months. Bahnsen argued that valuations like Palantir's 159 times earnings are unsustainable indefinitely, and that Wall Street's S&P 500 targets near 7,800 rely on unrealistic earnings assumptions. Drawing a dot-com parallel, he predicted most AI names will fail, with only a handful surviving a prolonged period of muted returns.

Impact on stocks 4

Artificial Intelligence · 3 stocks
Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Article highlights Palantir's 84.71% revenue growth yet 36.47% YTD decline and 159x P/E as unsustainable, directly calling it a bubble signal.

NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Article cites NVIDIA's high valuation and muted stock price response to strong earnings as a sign of AI bubble, implying downside risk.

Semiconductors · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 2

Related news

impact 4

Big Tech's $300B AI Guarantees Raise Hidden Investor Risk

Technology companies have provided as much as $300 billion in guarantees to finance artificial intelligence data centers and chips over the past year, helping support the construction boom without immediately recording most of the exposure as debt, the Financial Times reported Sunday. Meta pioneered the use of residual value guarantees for a major data center project last year, and Broadcom has since used them to support chip sales connected to Anthropic, while Nvidia has offered similar backing for infrastructure serving OpenAI and other customers. The guarantees set a minimum future value for computing equipment or data centers owned by special-purpose entities, and if an asset is eventually sold or leased for less than that amount, the technology company may have to cover part of the shortfall. Morgan Stanley estimates that seven major cloud and chip companies have accumulated more than $3.1 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments and other forms of credit support. Broadcom provided about $29 billion in backing for a special-purpose vehicle that will buy chips and lease them to Anthropic, Nvidia offered to support as much as 25% of certain financing packages and provided $105 billion in guarantees to SB Energy for an Ohio data center campus intended for OpenAI, and Meta supplied a $28 billion guarantee for its Hyperion data center venture with Blue Owl in Louisiana. Credit-rating agencies assess how much the promised value exceeds an asset's likely price under stressed conditions and may add that difference to their leverage calculations, and while analysts generally have concluded the assets provide enough collateral to limit expected losses, investors will need to monitor whether that remains true as AI hardware ages and financing commitments grow.
Seeking Alpha·51mRead more →
3

Trump eyes AI Force and AI czar to back seamless industry growth

US President Donald Trump revealed on Saturday, September 19, that he is in the process of establishing an AI Force and plans to announce the appointment of an AI czar soon. Trump said via his Truth Social that he will certainly not stand idly by and allow the destruction or undermining of AI technology, stressing that he will not obstruct or restrict the growth of this industry in any way, but will nurture, support and watch over it so that it grows even more, while also monitoring bad behavior through existing criminal and civil justice processes. Trump also compared AI to a new industrial revolution or internet era, and said the industry could account for as much as 25% of US gross domestic product, or GDP. However, Trump did not disclose further details about the planned structure of the AI Force or the role of the AI czar. The announcement comes amid growing debate in the United States over the rapid development of AI technology and the risks it may pose.
InfoQuest·12hRead more →

China Micro Semicon Establishes Hunan Tech Subsidiary to Expand into AI and Integrated Circuit Chip Business

China Micro Semicon has established a wholly owned subsidiary, China Micro Changxin Hunan Technology Company, with a business scope covering the sales of integrated circuit chips and products, integrated circuit chip design and services, integrated circuit sales, as well as artificial intelligence foundational software development and artificial intelligence application software development. Corporate registry data shows the company is wholly owned by China Micro Semicon.