Bank of Thailand sees second-half recovery, driven by state spending and tourism, awaits Q2 GDP before revising forecast on 26 August
Macro
The Bank of Thailand says the economy still has good growth potential in the second half of 2026, supported by government spending disbursements in the third quarter and the seasonal tourism boost in the fourth quarter. However, it must keep a close watch on Chinese tourist arrivals and China's economic situation. Second-quarter gross domestic product figures will be released on 17 August 2026, and the Bank of Thailand will revise its forecast again on 26 August 2026. Inflation came in lower than expected and may cause the full-year figure to slightly undershoot the target, but exports remain strong in the electronics sector, although high imports are reducing the net positive contribution to GDP. In addition, the US Section 301 tariff imposed on Thailand at a rate of 12.5 percent is better than the previously expected 19 percent and close to the roughly 10 percent levied on regional competitors, meaning Thai goods do not face a major cost disadvantage. Still, the announcement on overcapacity expected within August 2026 must be watched to see whether additional tariffs will be applied.
