BANPU expects continued growth in second half as coal prices keep rising

Commodity
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Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities noted that the latest Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) reference coal price as of August 28, 2026, stood at $137.93 per ton, up $6.12 per ton (+4.64% wow). The average since the start of 2026 to date is $129.43 per ton (+22.68% yoy). Meanwhile, regional coal stocks rose on average by 3.77% wow, with Hong Kong +5.38% wow, China +5.85% wow, Indonesia +3.23% wow, and Thailand +1.72% wow, while India fell 1.04% wow. BANPU shares rose 3.45% wow, while LANNA was flat at 0.00% wow. Coal prices rose 4.64% wow last week, supported by declining coal inventories in China after authorities tightened mine safety inspections, coupled with heavy rains in Inner Mongolia's production areas affecting output and transport. Port coal stocks have continued to decline, boosting import demand. India is also facing monsoon rains, impacting coal production and transport, with power plant coal stocks down 19% from end-July to about 30.95 million tons, sufficient for only 10 days of power demand. The number of plants with critically low stocks rose to 45 from 31 at end-August. Additionally, spot coal prices were supported by higher natural gas prices wow due to LNG shipping uncertainties amid Middle East conflicts. The research house recommends trading coal stocks in line with coal price direction, which faces intermittent positive and negative factors from war risks, short-term supply shortages, and concerns over import tariff hikes by several countries, which could cause prices to spike on short-term positives. However, going forward, prices are expected to gradually move toward a balance of actual supply and demand. For the long term, overall coal demand is expected to gradually decline as many countries worldwide adopt policies to reduce coal use and place greater emphasis on the environment. For BANPU, the 2027 fair value is 17.0 baht per share with a Buy recommendation, based on expected earnings growth in 2H69 from 1H69, driven by higher coal production volumes and expected stable selling prices at good levels, plus an interim dividend of 0.4 baht per share (XD September 11, 2026).

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Energy Transition & Power Demand · 2 stocks

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