Barclays PLCBarclays strategists publish report on 'Sell America' narrative, constructive on equities.
Barclays reports that the 'Sell America' narrative has re-emerged in rates and currency markets, though a full regime shift has not occurred as U.S. and global equities continue to hit new highs supported by robust earnings. Strategists led by Emmanuel Cau note that uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's path, the unwinding of yen carry trades, and the sustainability of AI capital spending have revived the narrative, but it is felt more in rates and foreign exchange than in equities. The bank highlights a complex set of macro forces, including higher long-end yields and a weaker dollar since the latest FOMC meeting, with gold's rebound alongside dollar weakness consistent with a partial revival of the trade. Barclays also points to Japanese yen dynamics, where JGB yields are materially above levels seen during the 2024 carry unwind and coordinated yen stabilization efforts are weighing on both the dollar and the Treasury market, while record yen shorts and large carry positions remain a structural source of elevated volatility. Despite these pressures, Barclays' flows data show little evidence of a significant rotation away from U.S. stocks, and the bank remains constructive on equities, expecting them to grind higher and broader, though with scope for elevated volatility given known unknowns such as elevated positioning and historically weak pre-midterm seasonality.
Barclays PLCBarclays strategists publish report on 'Sell America' narrative, constructive on equities.
Higher long-end yields and weaker dollar since FOMC, with yen carry unwind pressuring Treasuries.
JGB yields above 2024 levels and yen stabilization efforts weigh on dollar, supporting yen and JGB yields.