BCP expects Q2 2026 net profit to surge to 10 billion baht, boosted by SAF

Earnings
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Summary · why it matters

Bangchak Corporation, or BCP, forecasts second-quarter 2026 net profit at approximately 10 billion baht, up 66 percent from the previous quarter. The increase is driven by core profit rising another 25.4 percent and net special items falling to around 2.2 billion baht from 3.7 billion baht in the prior quarter, as combined realized and unrealized hedging losses are expected to drop to about 2.1 billion baht from a loss of 12 billion baht in the previous quarter, and no oil stock loss is anticipated this quarter. Core profit is seen at around 12 billion baht, up 25.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, supported by the refinery business where the effective tax rate fell to about 34 percent from 42 percent, even though total refining margin edged down to around 16 US dollars per barrel from 18 US dollars per barrel. The marketing business also saw higher marketing margins, and the company began booking profit from the sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, business for the first time, covering about one and a half months. Meanwhile, the power plant business through BCPG is expected to post lower profit quarter-on-quarter due to planned maintenance shutdowns at US power plants and the low season for the monsoon wind farm in Laos. The exploration and production business through OKEA is pressured by lower sales volumes despite higher selling prices, along with impairment charges from a lower forward oil price outlook. The research team has raised its full-year net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to around 21 billion baht and 14 billion baht, respectively, based on total refining margin assumptions of 10.0 and 7.5 US dollars per barrel for 2026 and 2027, and includes SAF profit averaging 2.0 to 3.0 billion baht per year, plus profit from the Chevron Hong Kong business starting in 2027 averaging 500 to 600 million baht per year. The end-2026 fundamental value is raised to 48 baht per share from 43 baht, with the full-year 2026 dividend raised to 5 baht per share. The first-half dividend is expected at around 2.5 baht per share, implying a high first-half dividend yield of 5.9 percent. The buy recommendation is maintained.

Impact on stocks 3

Electrification & Mobility▲ · 1 stocks
Energy Transition & Power Demand▼ · 1 stocks
BCPG Public Company Limited
BCPG
▼ NegativeSupplyrelevance

BCPG's power plant business expected to post lower profit QoQ due to planned maintenance shutdowns and low season for wind farm.

Energy▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 1

Off-coverage companies 1

OKEA ASAPrivate▼ Negative
CapitalSupplyrelevance

OKEA pressured by lower sales volumes and impairment charges from lower forward oil price outlook.

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