Yuanta Securities stated that Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited, or BCP, has set a high-growth target, expecting EBITDA to reach 100 billion baht in 2030 and revenue to reach 1 trillion baht in 2031. The company assesses that the next one to two years will remain a period of tight refining supply because production capacity in Russia and the Middle East has been damaged, and Teapot refineries in China have reduced output. Looking ahead to 2027, the market will remain tight because building new refineries takes a long time. The trading business targets EBITDA of 5 billion baht in 2031, up from 1 billion baht in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the upstream business OKEA plans to increase production volume to 100 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2031, from the current 29 to 32 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and will begin drilling its first exploration well in the G2/65 project with Chevron in 2026. The company has committed capital expenditure of 9.2 billion baht per year, with 66 percent allocated to the refining, marketing, and bio-products businesses, and 24 percent to the upstream business. In the short term during the second half of 2026, the refining rate is expected to be around 260 thousand barrels per day, compared with 276 thousand barrels per day in the first half of 2026, supported by a tight refined oil market, expansion of the trading business, higher natural gas prices in Europe, and an increase in capacity revenue from power plants in the United States, as well as the start of recognizing Bangchak Hong Kong's operating results after the deal closed at the end of June. On a full-year basis, this would contribute revenue of 40 billion baht and EBITDA of 2 billion baht, along with recognizing a full quarter of operating results from the SAF project. Most recently, in the second quarter of 2026, the production rate was high at 6.8 thousand barrels per day and generated EBITDA of about 1 billion baht per quarter. Yuanta Securities maintains its 2026 net profit estimate at 26 billion baht and has switched to a target price at the end of 2027 of 58.00 baht, based on a ten-year historical average price-to-book value of 0.9 times. The current price offers upside gain of 13.2 percent and a high 2026 dividend yield of 8.8 percent. The recommendation remains buy.
Bangchak Corporation Public Company LimitedCompany sets high-growth targets for EBITDA and revenue, with committed capex.
Chevron Corp