Bernstein sees 50% upside for ASML despite China DUV scare

KLA Corporation is benefiting from accelerating artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, which is driving higher investments in leading-edge foundry and logic technologies and boosting demand for its process-control solutions. In fiscal 2026, the Semiconductor Process Control segment's revenues increased 12% year over year, and overall fiscal 2026 revenues rose 12% year over year to $13.58 billion. During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, management raised its calendar 2026 wafer-fabrication equipment market estimate, including advanced packaging, to the low-$150 billion range, up from its previous $140 billion-plus view and approximately $120 billion in calendar 2025. KLAC expects second-half 2026 revenues to be approximately 20% higher than the first half, aided by high-performance computing, high-bandwidth memory, increasing extreme ultraviolet adoption in DRAM and advanced packaging technologies such as hybrid bonding, and said backlog was expected to reach about $12.5 billion. The company faces intensifying competition from Applied Materials, which expects its process diagnostics and control business to grow more than 50% in calendar 2026, and from ASML, which expects advanced foundry and logic revenues to rise about 25% in 2026 and extreme ultraviolet revenues to increase roughly 45%.

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan warned this week that memory prices have jumped 5x to 7x and now account for roughly 75% of the cost of some lower-end phones and laptops, cautioning the shortage could deepen in 2027. Tan told investors the industry faces one of the most severe supply constraints in its history across leading-edge logic, silicon wafers, memory, and subscripts, and said these shortages will persist for the foreseeable future. Intel is pivoting production toward data-center CPUs and now guides 2026 capital expenditure above $20 billion, with 2027 spending set to run significantly higher. Micron Technology echoed the outlook, saying it sees tightness continuing beyond 2027, aligned with SK hynix flagging 2027 as potentially the industry's worst supply year. Micron's $100 billion in take-or-pay remaining performance obligations and $22 billion in customer deposits and letters of credit lock in floor pricing above prior peak margins, while its fiscal third-quarter gross margin hit 84.9% on DRAM pricing gains in the low 60s percentage range and NAND pricing in the mid-80s percentage range.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company expects to sell roughly twice as many chips next year as it does this year, calling it one of his strongest signals yet that AI demand remains far from exhausted. Speaking to reporters Thursday at a summit in Scotland with King Charles III, Huang said the reason is AI's contribution to different industries and economies, and that people in almost every country Nvidia operates in want to invest in AI. The forecast adds to Nvidia's increasingly aggressive outlook: the company recently said it expects roughly 70% growth in the fiscal year ending January 2028, which would put annual revenue around $673 billion. Nvidia does not disclose total chip unit shipments, making Huang's volume forecast difficult to translate directly into revenue, though its most important products include data-center GPUs, particularly Blackwell and next-generation Rubin systems; Huang said last fall that Nvidia had shipped about 6 million Blackwell GPUs over four quarters. The comments come as investors debate whether hyperscaler spending and model-training demand can keep growing at the breakneck pace seen during the first phase of the AI buildout, with the key question being not simply whether Nvidia can double chip volumes but what that mix looks like, since higher shipments of premium Blackwell and Rubin systems could support enormous revenue growth while greater unit volume at lower average selling prices would produce a different margin outcome.