Bernstein analysts said Hershey and Mondelez are more likely to expand partnerships in international markets than pursue a full-scale merger in the near term, citing the success of their recent Reese's and Oreo product collaborations. The companies jointly launched Reese's products containing Oreo pieces and Oreos containing Reese's pieces in the second half of 2025, which Bernstein called among the most successful new-product introductions, particularly for Hershey. The investment bank sees China and Western Europe, particularly Britain, as the most attractive areas for further cooperation, with Mondelez's estimated China sales of about $2 billion and Hershey's limited European footprint. Bernstein also modeled a scenario in which Hershey acquires Mondelez at a 15% premium, estimating earnings per share would be diluted by about 5% in the first year but become nearly 11% accretive if cost synergies equivalent to 8.5% of Hershey's sales were achieved over two to three years. However, major structural obstacles remain, including the Hershey Trust's control of about 79% of voting rights through Class B shares, which would fall to about 51% in a three-times leverage scenario, potentially triggering provisions requiring it to raise its ownership.
Hershey CoAnalyst discusses potential merger with Mondelez, but sees partnerships more likely; merger scenario shows dilution and structural obstacles.
Mondelez International IncAnalyst discusses potential merger with Hershey, but sees partnerships more likely; merger scenario shows accretion if synergies achieved.
