Betting Markets Price in Rate Hike Odds as Fed Chair Warsh Defies Expectations

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โดย 24/7 Wall St.·Read original
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Betting markets now price in a 35 to 40 percent chance of a July rate hike after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting, challenging earlier assumptions that he would deliver the White House's preferred rate cuts. Warsh has abandoned the Fed's tradition of extensive forward guidance, replacing it with data-driven decisions that keep all policy options open. Prediction markets have swung from cuts to hikes to steady and back since his nomination, revealing crowd forecasts driven by momentum over analysis. Warsh's willingness to raise rates if inflation requires it, regardless of who appointed him, has led Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen to conclude that 'Warsh fooled Trump.'

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