Betting markets now assign roughly a 4% probability to the U.S. government nationalizing SpaceX by January 2027, down from around 11% in August 2025. The decline follows broader discussion of potential government ownership stakes in artificial intelligence companies, with Senator Bernie Sanders proposing the American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act to take direct stakes in firms like xAI, the AI division of SpaceX. The Trump administration has previously taken ownership interests in companies such as Intel, MP Materials, and Lithium Americas. Limited trading volumes in these prediction markets add uncertainty to the odds.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common StockBetting markets show low probability of nationalization, but the article discusses potential government ownership stakes in AI companies including xAI, SpaceX's AI division, which could be negative for SpaceX if pursued.
Intel Corporation
Lithium Americas Corp
MP Materials Corp
NVIDIA Corporation