Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080, entering bear market territory. Three potential catalysts could reverse the trend: a Federal Reserve pivot to cutting interest rates if inflation eases and employment declines, resolution of the overhang from Strategy's $1.25 billion authorized Bitcoin sales framework, and the pre-halving accumulation effect ahead of the April 2028 halving when mining rewards drop to 1.5625 bitcoins per block. Core inflation has been moderating modestly month-over-month, and the next halving is about 654 days away, with past cycles showing price acceleration roughly 12 months prior.
MicroStrategy IncorporatedStrategy's $1.25 billion authorized Bitcoin sales framework creates overhang, potentially pressuring its stock.