Bluebell expects Fed to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, recommends accumulating global bond funds

MacroDigital Finance
โดย HoonSmart·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Bluebell Securities assessed the direction of US monetary policy after the Federal Reserve, or Fed, voted unanimously at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting to raise the policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00%, citing persistently high inflation and stating that this policy move aims to help bring inflation back to the 2% target more quickly. Bluebell views the Fed's stance as increasingly hawkish, with priority given to controlling inflation as the key issue. Meanwhile, the median projection for the policy rate at the end of 2026 stands at 4.1%, up from the previous estimate of 3.8%, and the September Dot Plot indicates that more Fed officials see the possibility of further rate hikes within this year. On economic projections, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from 2.2%, but also raised its inflation estimates, expecting PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026 versus 3.6% previously, and core PCE inflation of 3.4% versus 3.3% previously. As for the bond market, Bluebell believes the bond market has already largely priced in the Fed's hawkish stance, with the 10-year bond yield rising to around 4.9-5.0%, making this period of elevated bond yields an interesting opportunity to gradually accumulate global bond funds with medium duration. On the equity market, Bluebell maintains a positive view on growth stocks, seeing the AI value chain theme as still having high growth potential, which may help offset the impact of a higher discount rate. At the same time, it also holds a positive view on the finance and banking sector given the opportunity for net interest margins to expand in line with changes in monetary policy. Bluebell recommends eight standout funds: Global Bond in KF-CSINCOME and UGIS-A, Core Portfolio in ES-GAINCOME and ES-GCORE, and Satellite in ES-GTECH, DAOL-SUPERAI, KF-AINEXT, and LHUSFIN-A.

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％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Fed raised the policy rate by 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% and signaled further hikes, pushing the effective fed funds rate higher.

Off-coverage companies 2

Bluebell Securities Company LimitedPrivate± Mixed
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Fast Ejendom Danmark A/SPrivate± Mixed
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