Summary · why it matters
Bank of America says the semiconductor sector is trading at its most attractive valuation in years following an 18% Philadelphia Semiconductor Index underperformance against the S&P 500, offering an unexpected buying opportunity. Analysts led by Didier Scemama see the sector trading at a roughly 3x discount to average 2028 consensus earnings multiples, with semiconductor capital equipment stocks at a 6-7x discount and offering the highest visibility. The current peak-to-trough underperformance tracks the 2015 China slowdown and 2018 trade tensions, well short of the roughly 30% drawdowns seen in full cyclical downturns, and BofA frames the selloff as trade-tension-driven rather than a fundamental deterioration. The bank forecasts Wafer Fab Equipment spending reaching at least $250 billion in 2028, implying two consecutive years of approximately 30% year-over-year growth, supported by long-term supply agreements such as a reported Samsung-Broadcom five-year, $200 billion foundry deal and higher capital expenditure announcements from TSMC and Intel. BofA also pushed back on fears of a memory pricing crash, citing long-term agreements signed by major hyperscalers, automotive and consumer OEMs. ASML is BofA's preferred European large-cap, with a Buy rating and 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates 6-7% above Street consensus, while ASM International is expected to deliver 11% upside to consensus second-quarter EPS, driven by TSMC and Intel capex increases, China strength, and a recovery in analog and power semiconductors. STMicroelectronics rounds out the Buy-rated semicap names, with BofA maintaining that its earnings power of $4.50-plus in calendar 2028 remains intact despite investor frustration over gradual margin leverage, pointing to a book-to-bill ratio at 2x, manufacturing efficiencies adding 4 percentage points of gross margin by mid-2028, and product cycles in optical components and low-earth-orbit satellites. Beyond equipment, BofA flagged Nokia as a Buy-rated stock on an under-appreciated order intake of €2.8 billion, while rating Ericsson and Logitech Underperform on margin and growth concerns.