Bank of America analysts believe gold may spend the bulk of the second half of 2026 consolidating and potentially falling further before a durable bottom forms, effectively making 2026 a lost year for the metal. The bank notes that gold's rally from October 2023 to January 2026 lasted 121 weeks, while the subsequent correction has run just 24 weeks, creating a time imbalance that suggests the selloff is not yet complete. BofA sees a possible near-term rebound toward $4,325 to $4,500, but warns that a move above $4,300 could form a lower high before selling resumes, with key downside support around the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $3,703 and another long-term measure near $3,605. The bank advises investors to avoid chasing gold near $4,000 and instead build positions gradually at lower levels, favoring physical gold over silver and gold-mining ETFs, while singling out Newmont as the strongest relative option among major miners.
Newmont Goldcorp CorpBofA expects gold to consolidate or fall further, reducing demand for gold miners like Newmont.
Bank of America CorpBofA's bearish gold outlook may reduce client trading activity and investment banking revenue from commodities.