BofA survey shows investor cash near historic lows, bullishness surges

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Investor optimism has climbed to its third-highest level since 2022, according to Bank of America's August Global Fund Manager Survey, with portfolio cash holdings approaching historic lows and allocations to equities reaching their strongest level in nearly five years. Cash declined to 3.5% of assets under management in August from 3.6% in July, the sixth-lowest reading since the survey began in 1998, keeping BofA's contrarian Cash Rule on a sell signal. Global equity exposure increased to a net 56% overweight, its highest since November 2021, while a record 56% of respondents anticipate a no-landing scenario and 43% expect a boom outcome. Some 72% of fund managers do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates before the November midterm elections, and 53% expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to strike a neutral tone at Jackson Hole. A long position in global semiconductor stocks remains the most crowded trade at 53%, down from 82% in July, while an AI bubble is cited as the largest tail risk by 32% of respondents.

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