BofA warns oil volatility could force central banks to abandon 'look-through' policy

MacroCommodityDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย Investing.com·Read original
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Bank of America Global Research warns that persistent oil price volatility may force major central banks to abandon their traditional 'look-through' approach to supply-side commodity shocks, as five years of above-target inflation have made core inflation metrics vulnerable to energy price spillovers. The Federal Reserve faces an extremely close July decision after a 10% jump in WTI crude, with markets pricing nearly 10 basis points of a hike, challenging Chair Warsh's framework of ignoring supply shocks; BofA maintains its forecast of three 25-basis-point hikes in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank held rates steady but is expected to hike in September, with risks tilted toward a third hike if energy markets worsen, though rate cuts are anticipated in 2027. The Bank of England is seen holding its Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, while the Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain a neutral hold amid higher fuel costs and rising U.S. rate expectations.

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