Brazil and Mexico World Cup exits to weigh on beer demand, says Morgan Stanley

Industry
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Summary · why it matters

The World Cup eliminations of Brazil and Mexico could dampen beer demand for Anheuser-Busch InBev, Constellation Brands, and Heineken, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm estimates that deep tournament runs historically boost beer volumes by 80 basis points in the quarter finals, 150 basis points in the semi-finals, and 215 basis points in the final. Brazil's early knockout is seen as a material negative surprise given the size of its beer market and high expectations for a deep run, adversely impacting third-quarter sales for the three brewers, with Heineken affected to a lesser extent. Attention now turns to the U.S. team's match against Belgium, which could provide an upside surprise for Anheuser-Busch if the host nation advances further.

Impact on stocks 4

Consumer Staples▼ · 4 stocks
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
1NBA
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Brazil's early World Cup exit is expected to dampen beer demand, adversely impacting Anheuser-Busch InBev's third-quarter sales.

Constellation Brands Inc Class A
STZ
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Brazil's early World Cup exit is expected to dampen beer demand, adversely impacting Constellation Brands' third-quarter sales.

Heineken
HEIA
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Brazil's early World Cup exit is expected to dampen beer demand, adversely impacting Heineken's third-quarter sales, though to a lesser extent.

Heineken Holding NV
HEIO
▼ NegativeDemandrelevance

Brazil's early World Cup exit is expected to dampen beer demand, adversely impacting Heineken Holding's third-quarter sales, though to a lesser extent.

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