Brokers say oil price plunge below $80 supports global stocks, but SET upside limited; recommend laggard domestic play

MacroAnalyst

โดย InfoQuest·

Summary · why it matters

Asia Plus Securities assesses that the drop in Brent crude oil below $80 per barrel, driven by hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is a positive factor for global stock markets. However, the SET Index has limited upside because commodity-related stocks account for as much as one-quarter of total market capitalization. The firm recommends rotating into laggard domestic play stocks. Financial markets have reduced the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising its policy rate to 4.0% to just 53%, down from 67% the previous day, while US Treasury yields have declined, supporting a rebound in US and Asian stock indices. In the technology sector, two key issues are currently the main drivers. First, the ban on photonics components from China is positive for US manufacturers, with short-term speculative opportunities recommended in DR: COHR23 and DR: LITE80. Second, the launch of HBF memory chip technology by SanDisk and SK Hynix is expected to accelerate SanDisk's growth, with the market forecasting revenue growth of 354% year-on-year and earnings per share surging as much as 11,751% year-on-year. Historically, after earnings announcements, the stock price has risen by an average of 6% on the next trading day. For Thailand's July 2026 inflation, the market expects a reading of 2.55% year-on-year, making it highly likely that the Bank of Thailand will keep its policy rate at 1.0% through the end of this year. Foreign capital flows have begun to slow and are signaling a rotation into stocks tied mainly to domestic economic activity. Another risk to watch is the direction of the yen, as speculators betting on a weaker yen are facing pressure from the Bank of Japan.