JPMorgan Chase & CoJPM
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Digital Finance & Tokenization
JPMorgan Chase & CoBTIG is warning that the S&P 500 is entering one of its most dangerous seasonal stretches, with history suggesting the market could face a sharp pullback between now and October. The firm says the risk is especially important this year because stocks already look technically stretched and semiconductor leadership is beginning to weaken. BTIG's warning centers on the equal-weight S&P 500, which since 1990 has fallen at least 7% between August and October in every midterm election year except 2006. The firm notes the equal-weight benchmark has on average peaked around August 18 before declining into mid-October, and it recommends investors reduce risk or hedge equity exposure. BTIG also points to the S&P 500 trading well above its 200-day moving average and the New York Stock Exchange not recording a downside volume day since last October, when such sessions normally occur around 21 times per year, suggesting an unusually long time without a broad selling washout. The firm is watching semiconductor stocks closely, as the group has played a major role in this year's gains but is already beginning to show signs of weakness.
JPMorgan Chase & Co