Bualuang keeps DELTA target at 330 baht after Morgan Stanley revises AI power assumptions

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Bualuang Securities says DELTA's growth outlook from AI and data centers has strengthened after Morgan Stanley raised its power assumptions for the Vera Rubin rack to 234kW from 149kW, and for Rubin Ultra to 600kW from 415kW, reflecting power demand that comes not only from GPUs but also from memory, networking, power delivery systems and cooling across the entire rack. As a result, Morgan Stanley now estimates global server and rack power demand in 2026 to 2028 at 18GW, 35GW and 52GW, compared with Bualuang's assumptions of 15GW, 20GW and 25GW respectively. Even after deducting US electricity constraints, this still equates to global installations of about 28GW per year, above Bualuang's assumption of 20GW per year. For DELTA, the higher power usage per rack supports both the value of power delivery systems and cooling systems per rack, while Morgan Stanley has raised its liquid cooling capex assumption by 30% and sees cooling as an increasingly essential infrastructure. In addition, the 800VDC architecture improves system efficiency by about 5%, cuts copper usage by about 45% and supports racks drawing more than 1MW. In the short term, component constraints look set to ease gradually in the third quarter of 2026, with Delta Taiwan's power electronics sales in July up 59% year on year and 17% month on month, before falling 9% month on month in August but still 40% above the same period last year. DELTA's third-quarter 2026 sales are expected at 2.2 billion US dollars, up 34% year on year and 10% quarter on quarter, with a gross margin of 29.2% and core profit of about 9 billion baht, up 21% year on year and 60% quarter on quarter, before the fourth quarter of 2026 has a chance to set a new record high on deliveries of orders backlogged from the second and third quarters of 2026. Bualuang maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of 330 baht and keeps its weighting on the electronics sector at market weight.

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