CGSI keeps neutral weighting on power stocks, says data centres will add little to earnings before 2028, picks GULF as top choice

The top five US hyperscalers are projecting a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion to $725 billion for 2026, nearly double their 2025 outlays, as the AI build-out shifts from software to physical infrastructure. Microsoft is guiding for roughly $175 billion in adjusted capital expenditure for both FY2026 and FY2027, with two-thirds of quarterly spend going to short-lived assets like CPUs and GPUs and the rest to long-lived data center infrastructure, and it added 1 gigawatt of capacity in Q3 FY2026, doubling its global footprint in two years. Amazon AWS has raised its 2026 capex guidance to approximately $220 billion, with CEO Andy Jassy saying AI capacity is expected to remain constrained through 2027 and contracted demand extending into 2028. Meta saw profit drop 14% in Q2 2026 despite a 28% revenue increase as its build-out, including a 1 gigawatt data center in Ohio and a Louisiana facility that could scale to 5 gigawatts, compressed margins, while Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion and its Google Cloud backlog more than doubled year-over-year to $240 billion. The Stargate joint venture involving Oracle, OpenAI and others targets up to $500 billion in infrastructure investment by 2029, and Oracle's FY2026 capex reached $55.7 billion, more than doubling from the previous year.

Citi says growing political opposition to artificial intelligence infrastructure ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections has not materially weakened the data center construction pipeline. Data center development has become a bipartisan flashpoint, with local governments introducing moratoriums and at least 15 state legislatures proposing tighter regulatory restrictions, yet spending remains strong as AI infrastructure demand continues to support development. The impact has been concentrated among speculative and early-stage projects, which are increasingly delayed or cancelled during local approval processes, while late-stage developments that have already secured sites and grid connections continue to move ahead. Hyperscalers are seeking workarounds to power constraints and local restrictions, with Amazon pursuing direct investment in nuclear development with Dominion Energy and Meta securing a major nuclear power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy. Citi does not expect another market shock comparable to the emergence of DeepSeek, arguing investors have already adjusted to the prospect of highly efficient Chinese models, though it flags a potentially greater risk from governments restricting models deemed too dangerous, which could abruptly create excess computing capacity.

NextEra Energy has reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92 to $4.02 and said it is targeting the high end of that range, as it advances a $67 billion all-stock acquisition of Dominion Energy that is expected to close in the second half of 2027. NextEra expects adjusted EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of at least 8% through 2032 and is targeting the same growth rate through 2035 off the 2025 base, while the combined company is expected to deliver 9%+ adjusted EPS growth through 2032 and is targeting the same rate through 2035 off NextEra's 2025 base. The company expects its dividend per share to grow at a roughly 10% annual rate through 2026 off the 2024 base, then 6% a year through 2028 from the 2026 base. To improve the deal's approval chances, the companies submitted an expanded benefits package to Virginia regulators that would double residential bill credits to four years, shield retail customers from grid costs tied to Northern Virginia's AI data centers, and add $100 million to Dominion's low-income bill assistance program through 2038 plus another $100 million for workforce development. If completed, the merger would create the largest US electricity producer, operating the largest natural gas-fired generation fleet in the US and the second-largest nuclear fleet.