Applied Materials IncChina's domestic immersion DUV lithography machines erode demand for Applied Materials' equipment in China.

China has begun mass-producing domestic immersion DUV lithography machines, raising concerns that local alternatives could erode demand for Western chip equipment suppliers such as Applied Materials amid ongoing export controls. This development introduces a new competitive and geopolitical risk for Applied Materials, potentially complicating its ability to convert AI-driven semiconductor investment into future equipment orders from Chinese fabs. Applied Materials' investment narrative projects $50.6 billion revenue and $16.6 billion earnings by 2029, requiring 20.4% yearly revenue growth and roughly an $8.1 billion earnings increase from $8.5 billion today. The company recently introduced new systems for 2 nm and advanced 3D architectures, including the Viva nanosheet engineering platform and advanced ALD and etch tools, which could help offset pressure if Chinese fabs increasingly use local lithography. Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting revenue to reach about $67.2 billion and earnings $24.4 billion by 2029, far more upbeat than the risk of Asian rivals gaining share in restricted markets that this China DUV news highlights.
Applied Materials IncChina's domestic immersion DUV lithography machines erode demand for Applied Materials' equipment in China.