China is pushing ahead with expanding the scope of tax collection on the overseas assets and income of its wealthy citizens, after net capital outflows in 2025 reached nearly 780 billion dollars, higher than the previous record of about 630 billion dollars in 2015. Zhou Aingke, a director at Barclays, sees the latest measures as possibly the first step toward tighter scrutiny of cross-border wealth, with authorities potentially extending scrutiny in future to exporters' income held abroad, income from overseas investment and employment, and in the longer term possibly including gift or inheritance taxes. Barclays expects China may widen its tax base to cover returns from overseas real estate, equities, bonds and precious metals, bringing China's tax system closer to the approach of other large economies. This year's moves began in May, when banks and securities firms in Hong Kong started restricting mainland Chinese clients from investing in overseas stocks. Then in July, China imposed a 20% income tax on offshore trusts, closing a tax loophole that high-net-worth families had long used. Most recently, regulators set a 20% tax on foreigners' dividends received from foreign-invested companies, which had previously not been taxed. Barclays estimates that the Chinese government's revenue fell to about 20% of GDP in 2025 from 26% in 2021, while spending dipped only slightly from 31% to 29% of GDP over the same period. Bank of America notes that China's tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 19.5% in 2024, compared with an OECD average of 34%.
Barclays PLCBarclays director and research are quoted providing analysis on China's tax measures, but no company-specific impact is described.
Bank of America Corp