China Youth Unemployment Could Approach 20% as Record Graduates Face AI Disruption

Macro Impact 4

โดย Bloomberg·Read original

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China's youth unemployment rate could approach 20% in the coming months as a record 12.7 million graduates enter a labor market increasingly disrupted by artificial intelligence. Surveyed urban unemployment for those aged 16-24 reached 14.9% in June, the highest for that month since the government excluded university students from the sample more than two years ago after the rate surpassed 20%. ANZ economist Zhaopeng Xing expects youth joblessness to near 20% in the next two months due to labor oversupply, weak domestic demand, and AI adoption. Citigroup estimates AI could eventually threaten 70 million Chinese workers, while HSBC notes China's AI adoption rate is the highest in Asia and above that of the US. Overall urban unemployment slipped to 5% in June, but the manufacturing employment PMI remained in contraction, and future hiring plans fell to a nine-month low. Outlays from the unemployment insurance fund jumped to 88.1 billion yuan in January-May, matching pandemic-era spending. The cabinet vowed to maximize fiscal fund efficiency and meet the 4.5%-5% growth target, with analysts expecting stronger easing rhetoric at the upcoming Politburo meeting.