Citi expects the dollar-yen exchange rate to decline below ¥155 per dollar by the end of 2026, even as current levels remain near fair value. The bank estimates fair value at approximately ¥161 per dollar using a model based on data from 2017 to 2025, and around ¥159 per dollar using a shorter-term model covering 2023 to 2025. Citi sees the dollar's longer-term upside capped at around ¥160 per dollar and believes Japanese authorities may need to continue intervening by purchasing yen to stabilize the exchange rate.
Citigroup Inc.Citi's forecast is an analyst call, but the article does not detail impact on Citigroup's own business.