Citigroup Inc.C
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Digital Finance & Tokenization
Citigroup Inc.Citi says global oil stockpiles could take years to hit crisis levels
CommodityAnalyst Impact 4
Citi estimates global oil inventories fell by about 3 million barrels per day between February and August 2026, a cumulative draw of roughly 519 million barrels, and projects it could take until 2029 for global stockpiles to approach the 70-day supply cover seen in past oil crises. The bank says OECD stocks could reach that threshold by end-2027, inventories outside China around mid-2028, and global stockpiles in the first quarter of 2029. Citi notes the 70-day level was reached during the second oil shock of the 1970s and 1980s, when energy spending hit about 8% of GDP, implying all-in oil prices above $200 per barrel versus roughly $120 now. The bank warns that diesel markets are already under distress, with U.S. wholesale diesel prices more than $100 per barrel above WTI and weighted refinery margins up about 350% this year to $33. Citi's base case still assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the fourth quarter, with Brent retreating to the $60-per-barrel range in 2027.
Citigroup Inc.