Citi Sees European Heatwaves Driving Long-Term Growth for U.S. HVAC Companies

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, or C3S, reported that August 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded in history, with the global average surface air temperature reaching 16.96 degrees Celsius, slightly above the previous record of about 16.95 degrees Celsius set in July 2023, and 0.85 degrees Celsius above the August average for the 1991-2020 period. It was also about 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the 1850-1900 period. The month was also the first since November 2025 that the global monthly average temperature rose more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, Western Europe also experienced its hottest summer on record, as a heatwave that began unusually early and intensely in May pushed the June-August average temperature above the previous record set in 2003. The global average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions, between latitudes 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, reached 21.07 degrees Celsius in August, the highest level ever recorded for that month, and remained unusually high across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the El Nino phenomenon is intensifying and could become one of the strongest on record in the coming months. Samantha Burgess, head of climate strategy at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said the figures reflect that climate change is driving extreme weather in both the atmosphere and the oceans, with growing impacts on communities, economies and ecosystems worldwide.

Belgium's public health office reported 2,935 excess deaths above the normal level during three heat waves from June 18 to August 16, representing an excess mortality rate of 22.6%. In the first wave, from June 18 to July 3, there were 2,035 additional deaths, or 48.8% above the expected level, the highest since the analysis of heat wave impacts began in 2000. The other two periods, July 4-17 and July 28-August 16, saw excess deaths of 535 and 365 respectively, with excess mortality rates of 14.8% and 7%. Although those aged 65 and above were the most affected, higher-than-normal deaths were also observed among younger people. This past summer, Europe faced multiple heat waves, while the United Nations weather agency noted that periods of extreme heat are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change.

The Robert Koch Institute, Germany's public health agency, said the estimated number of heat-related deaths in Germany from the start of the year through August 9 stood at around 14,000, a rate of nearly 17 per 100,000 people. The figure exceeds the full-year totals of every previous year, breaking the previous record set in 2018, when about 9,000 people died from heat, and it continues to trend upward. The elderly are at especially high risk, with people aged 75 and over accounting for nearly 10,500 of all heat-related deaths this year.