CNBC Poll: 86% of Analysts Expect the Fed to Raise Rates at Least Twice Next Year
MacroDigital Finance
A CNBC survey of analysts found that most expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least twice over the next year, with about one in three expecting three hikes or more. That marks a dramatic shift from last month, when only 46% of respondents expected the Fed to raise rates; that figure has now climbed to 86%, and of those, 55% expect more than one increase. The change follows Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish policy signals at last month's Jackson Hole meeting, a surge in oil prices that pushed inflation higher, and the view among roughly three in four of the 29 respondents that inflation is not confined to energy prices. The average inflation forecast rose to nearly 3.5% this year before easing to about 2.85% in 2027. Economic growth expectations were little changed, with the probability of a recession over the next 12 months put at 29% and U.S. GDP expected to grow about 2.25% both this year and next. The S&P 500 is expected to climb 8% to 8,274 points next year.
