Cocoa Prices Rise on Short Covering After Mixed Demand Signals

Commodity
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Cocoa futures settled higher on Tuesday as short covering lifted prices, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 87 dollars, or 1.58 percent, and September ICE London cocoa closing up 76 pounds, or 1.86 percent. The gains came as the market consolidated above last week's two-week lows, which were triggered by a 4.6 percent drop in second-quarter European cocoa grindings to 316,366 metric tons, the lowest for a second quarter in six years. However, prices found support late last week after North American second-quarter grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7 percent to 109,659 metric tons and Asian grindings surged 25 percent to 224,646 metric tons, easing demand concerns. Bearish factors include rising supplies, with Ivory Coast port arrivals up 21 percent year-over-year to 2.10 million metric tons so far this season and ICE cocoa inventories climbing to a two-year high of 3,285,161 bags. The market also faces medium-term support from weather risks, as an El Niño pattern expected to be one of the strongest in over 75 years threatens West African crops, while early surveys point to a weak 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop with pod development suggesting a harvest of around 1.8 million metric tons, down 18 percent from the prior season.

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