Cocoa prices surged to two-week highs on Monday, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 10.04% and September ICE London cocoa up 9.75%. The rally was driven by concerns over Ghana's cocoa production after COCOBOD projected the 2026/27 crop could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, down from 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26, due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms, and potential El Niño weather. Additional support came from potential global supply disruptions amid the near standstill of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. However, prices had recently dropped to one-month lows on signs of larger supplies, with Ivory Coast port arrivals up 20% year-on-year and Nigerian exports rising 30% in June, while ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high. Mixed demand signals included a 4.6% drop in European grindings but a 7.7% rise in North America and a 25% jump in Asia. Analysts have cut global surplus forecasts, with StoneX reducing its 2026/27 estimate to 25,000 metric tons and Transgraph Consulting projecting a surplus of 80,000 metric tons, down from 415,000 metric tons in 2025/26.